Skip to main content

Posts

Ed Carpenter Should Hire an Oval Expert

Recent posts

Fantasy IndyCar Picks: 2018 Kohler Grand Prix at Road America

Four drivers. $100. Here's a quick look at Single Seater's Fantasy IndyCar picks for the 2018 Kohler Grand Prix.

Penske secured a front row lockout in qualifying of Josef Newgarden and Will Power. Newgarden was fastest in two of the three practice sessions and it carried over into the qualifying session as he won his third pole of the season.

Here's the expected points table for Sunday's race. If you aren't sure what expected points are, check out this post first. There are a few tweaks to the model for this week's race because IndyCar hasn't raced at Road America enough in recent years to get accurate data for enough drivers. So Road America performance has been supplemented for this race with average finishing position on road courses in general:

In Brief Scott Dixon has the highest expected points for the race despite his fourth row start. He has been on a great run so far this year with two wins and six top-fives in nine races. Dixon's average fini…

Power Has Been Incredible - When He's Been on Track

Will Power is third place in the championship right now. In a typical year this wouldn't be surprising, but considering that he has failed to finish three of the nine races so far this season, this is an amazing feat.

With 321 points, he sits just 13 points shy of second place Rossi and 46 back from the championship leader Dixon. So how's he doing it?

First, let's address the DNFs. In the three races Power didn't complete, he finished 22nd, 21st, and 18th. Those results gave him a combined 32 points or 10 percent of his total points through nine races. This means he has averaged 48 points in the other six races! Even once you account for Indianapolis' double points, that's still an average of over 40 points per race - this is equivalent to a second place finish.

Power has been on an absolute tear in the races he has finished this year. Despite completing only 85.8% of the laps run, the least of any driver in the top ten, he is third in the championship. In the…

Fantasy IndyCar Review for the Indy 500

Single Seater's Fantasy picks for the Indy 500 scored a respectable 490 points on Sunday. The team was hurt by spins from front-runners Castroneves, Patrick, and Bourdais. They were one of the eight drivers caught up in wrecks during the race. Despite these wrecks, our picks had the podium finishers in the lineup as well as Pagenaud and Munzo who both made the optimal lineup for max points below.

The optimal lineup for the 2018 Indy 500, for $495, was as follows:
Carpenter - 92 pointsPagenaud - 65Power - 108Leist - 34Hunter-Reay - 61Wickens - 45Dixon - 71Rossi - 65 Hildebrand - 38Munoz - 53 This is the best ten-car lineup you could have selected for the race. This set of drivers scored 632 points on Sunday, meaning Single Seater's picks scored 77.5% of the maximum points they could have. Not a bad outing for the first run of our model. 
I don't plan on changing anything with our model just yet, and I'm excited to see how it does in both of the Detroit races. As of righ…

I Think I Can Go Another Lap: Tire Wear at the Indy 500

All of the top finishers at this year's Indy 500 stopped five times for fuel and tires throughout the 200 lap race. Most drivers came in around Lap 30-34 for their initial stop since the first caution didn't come out until Lap 48 when Sato ran into the back of a slow moving Davison. Since this first stint was run completely under green, I wanted to use it to evaluate the tires at the race.

I chose to use the top three finishers of the race--Power, Carpenter, and Dixon--for my analysis for two reasons. First, since getting the data into the format I needed took a bit of leg-work, it's simpler to limit the number of drivers I use. And second, since they performed the best on Sunday, I thought it would be interesting to see how the tires worked for them especially.

Both Power and Dixon ran 32 lap stints while Carpenter ran one lap less before pitting for the first time. Here is a graph of all three of their lap times for every lap of their first stint, not including the in-l…